ALMATY, Kazakhstan — The connection between the 2 most-populous international locations in Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, has arguably by no means been higher.
That may solely be good for Central Asia — a area that has for a very long time been dominated by outdoors international locations on the expense of real integration.
However it has solely added to the precarity of life for activists from Uzbekistan’s autonomous republic of Karakalpakstan, which was roiled by lethal unrest that broke out practically two years in the past amid authorities proposals to revoke the territory’s uncommon authorized standing.
Within the final three months alone, three Karakalpak activists have been arrested in Kazakhstan, pending extradition requests penned by authorities in Uzbekistan.
These arrests adopted the discharge from Kazakh jails of 5 others following a yr behind bars — the longest interval beneath Kazakh regulation that anybody detained on the idea of an extradition request might be held.
They usually come amid warnings from Karakalpak diaspora leaders that Uzbek-Kazakh coordination over the detentions is prone to take extra refined types, to keep away from worldwide press consideration and a unfavourable public response in Kazakhstan, whose state language and nationwide tradition are similar to these of the Karakalpaks.
However first to extra constructive points of bilateral cooperation.
A ‘Tandem’ Adapting To A ‘New Actuality’?
These had been on present throughout a reasonably low key however evidently symbolic assembly between Uzbek chief Shavkat Mirziyoev and Kazakh counterpart Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev within the Uzbek Silk Highway metropolis of Khiva earlier this month, the place Toqaev described the 2 international locations’ “tandem” as “very important.”
The connection between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan wasn’t ever probably the most problematic in Central Asia.
However when these international locations’ respective first presidents, Nursultan Nazarbaev and Islam Karimov, had been in energy it was tinged by perceptions of rivalry that dated again to the interval when each international locations had been Soviet republics.
An much more limiting think about bilateral relations was Karimov’s strategy to regional integration, which was cautious — to place it mildly.
Uzbekistan’s second chief, Shavkat Mirziyoev, instantly signaled that he had a distinct view on his nation’s place within the neighborhood.
From the beginning of his reign, which started after his mentor’s dying in 2016, he mended Uzbekistan’s damaged relationships with its neighbors, accelerating work to outline his nation’s borders with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, whereas taking a extra cooperative stance on water points with the latter two international locations.
Even within the case of Afghanistan, which Karimov spoke principally about as a risk, Mirziyoev’s administration has confused financial alternative over safety dangers.
As regards his nation’s relationship with Kazakhstan, an impetus for deeper cooperation has come from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“Each international locations are adapting to a brand new actuality,” Tashkent-based political analyst Anvar Nozirov advised RFE/RL.
“If, earlier than, Russia was a type of heart of communications for his or her commerce with the European Union, now, because of sanctions, they’re having to discover new avenues. They must work out survive.”
Commerce and transit had been excessive on the agenda at Toqaev and Mirziyoev’s April 5 talks within the Uzbek metropolis of Khiva.
A lot in order that Toqaev’s workplace highlighted in daring the leaders’ settlement for a three way partnership between the railway administrations of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which can work to prepare cargo transportation “alongside the China-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan route” whereas build up visitors heading additional south, by means of Afghanistan and on to Pakistani sea ports.
The 2 leaders additionally mentioned regional cooperation within the framework of C5+ conferences, a format whereby world leaders meet with all 5 of their colleagues from Central Asia — the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — concurrently.
However Nozirov argued that it’s doubtless different equally necessary objects had been merely omitted of the postmeeting communiques “so as to keep away from irritating Moscow.”
Which means discussions about increasing entry and logistics alongside the Center Hall — an up-and-coming multimodal commerce route that can join China to Europe by way of Kazakhstan on the expense of overland routes by means of Russia — in addition to anticipated navy workouts in Kazakhstan in July that can characteristic the armies of 4 Central Asian international locations and Azerbaijan.
“With the failures within the conflict in Ukraine, Russia’s position as a safety guarantor has come beneath doubt. Central Asian international locations additionally perceive that deepening navy cooperation with Russia whereas the conflict is going on may expose them to sanctions,” Nozirov mentioned, explaining the weird instance of regional navy cooperation with out both Russia or China that was introduced on the eve of the presidents’ Khiva assembly.
No Nations For Karakalpak Activists
Was the destiny of Karakalpak activists based mostly in Kazakhstan mentioned by the 2 leaders in Khiva?
A spokesman for the Uzbek Overseas Ministry didn’t straight reply to that query.
The Kazakh Overseas Ministry referred RFE/RL to Toqaev’s administration, which didn’t reply by time of publication.
However it’s evident that neither nation is a secure place for Karakalpaks to have interaction in activism after 21 individuals had been killed in violence throughout protests sparked by proposed amendments to the Uzbek Structure that might have downgraded Karakalpakstan’s peculiar “sovereign” standing (the territory has a flag and authorities that’s nominally autonomous from Tashkent) and withdrawn its constitutional proper to carry a referendum on secession from Uzbekistan.
Mirziyoev ordered the controversial amendments scrapped in a belated bid to quell the unrest.
But regardless of the set off for the violence being abundantly clear, it’s Karakalpaks who’ve paid the value.
Dozens had been sentenced to lengthy jail phrases in Uzbekistan final yr, whereas solely three law enforcement officials are mentioned to have been convicted, all for abusing detainees through the unrest.
And the repression continues.
On April 16, the Vienna-based Freedom For Eurasia rights group reported that Uzbek-based Karakalpak blogger Shingys Tairov was detained and sentenced to fifteen days in administrative detention for a video wherein he confirmed signage contained in the territory that had Uzbek and Russian phrases, however none in Karakalpak, as is required by regulation.
That was the type of activism usually tolerated by Tashkent previous to the July 2022 unrest — in lieu of the relative thaw for freedom of speech beneath Mirziyoev — however the guidelines of the sport have definitely modified.
And that’s unhealthy for Karakalpaks in Kazakhstan, who’re nearly all the time Uzbek passport holders because of the difficulties of exiting Uzbek citizenship.
In keeping with the main Kazakh rights group, the Kazakhstan Worldwide Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Legislation (KIBHR), a minimum of three Karakalpak activists have been arrested in Kazakhstan within the final three months: Aqylbek Muratov in February, Rasul Zhumaniyazov in March, and Rinat Utambetov in early April.
Up to now, most activists have been arrested for alleged crimes in opposition to Uzbekistan’s constitutional order, that are political crimes.
But Koshkarbai Toremuratov, one of many 5 Karakalpaks to spend a yr in jail in Kazakhstan following extradition requests filed by Uzbekistan within the second half of 2022, lately claimed that different Karakalpaks at the moment are being detained for nonpolitical crimes beneath Kazakh regulation — once more in cooperation with Uzbekistan however with out the noise that accompanies extradition requests and prices that carry prolonged jail phrases in Uzbekistan.
Whereas Toremuratov acknowledged that he couldn’t but show these stories, he has requested worldwide organizations to research the obvious development whereas noting that Kazakh police have stopped releasing official details about the arrests of late.
Within the case of each males, Rasul Zhumaniyazov and Rinat Utambetov, Toremuratov advised RFE/RL it’s doubtless that the detentions had been a part of a case associated to a web based marketing campaign calling for the liberty of the principle defendant in Uzbekistan’s Karakalpakstan trial, Daulet Tajimuratov, a lawyer and journalist who was given 16 years in jail on prices of plotting to grab energy by disrupting the constitutional order.
One other activist behind the marketing campaign, Rakhim Pirnazarov, is presently serving a four-year sentence beneath home arrest in Karakalpakstan, Toremuratov mentioned.
Free However Not Protected
It presently appears secure to imagine that any Karakalpak activist arrested in Kazakhstan at Tashkent’s demand will spend a minimum of a yr in jail.
“Our authorities tends to contemplate the political part — who’s making the request — initially,” mentioned KIBHR lawyer Denis Zhivaga advised RFE/RL.
“On this case it’s Uzbekistan, a rustic with whom we now have various agreements on regulation enforcement cooperation and, of late, a number of cooperation generally,” Zhivaga mentioned.
Mihra Rittmann, senior Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch, advised RFE/RL that Kazakh regulation doesn’t envisage any noncustodial choices for a person topic to an extradition request.
“This implies she or he might spend as much as 12 months in detention with out a trial — a violation of his/her proper to liberty and safety and a good trial.”
After the arrest of Muratov, a well known determine who repeatedly gave interviews to worldwide media, Kazakh regulation enforcement cited the Minsk Conference — to which each Astana and Tashkent are social gathering to — as a pretext for the arrest.
However Kazakhstan’s worldwide human rights regulation obligations ought to trump bilateral or regional agreements, mentioned Rittmann, who referred to as for extra strain from worldwide actors to try to stop the arrests.
Up to now, not one of the Karakalpak activists detained by Kazakh police have been deported to Uzbekistan.
However Zhivaga mentioned that his group has warned the activists of the risks of remaining in Kazakhstan whereas the Uzbek felony instances stay open.
“We’ve got helped them apply for asylum. However realistically, observe suggests they won’t get asylum or citizenship in Kazakhstan. They’d be safer in third international locations,” mentioned Zhivaga.
That’s one thing 48-year-old Toremuratov, a famous chief within the Karakalpak diaspora in Almaty, may but obtain.
However not with out problem.
Toremuratov went to Poland final fall to participate in a convention of the Group for Safety and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) the place he emphasised what he referred to as the “discrimination” in opposition to Karakalpaks on the a part of the Uzbek state.
Muratov’s participation in that annual human rights convention, by the way, types a part of the Uzbek state’s case in opposition to him.
However whereas Muratov flew again to Kazakhstan, Toremuratov then traveled to Austria, the place he made a bid for asylum, solely to be deported again to Poland, the place he was detained.
Although he’s now free, he should report back to Poland’s border authorities twice a month whereas his case is dealt with by Poland’s workplace for overseas nationals.
